Wondering if the housing bubble is about to pop?
The problem is that no one seems to agree on what the term means precisely. So it’s become a bit emotional and it’s not that helpful a concept in that either we are in one, in which case it’s about to burst (well, we’ve been hearing that for years and it hasn’t burst). Or we are not in one and there is nothing to worry about (which isn’t quite right because housing affordability is poor and a lot of debt has been taken on, which poses risks if economic circumstances change and people can’t service their loans). The truth is probably somewhere in between.
On most measures Sydney and Melbourne housing is overvalued in that price-to-median family income. Price-to-rent ratios are well above long-term averages and real prices are well above their long-term trend. In fact, prices have been rising by double digit rates since 2012, with gains of more than 50% in Melbourne and more than 70% in Sydney, whereas wages are up by around 15%. This has been made possible by household debt rising faster than wages, with buying by foreigners adding to the pressure.
Source: Is there a housing bubble?